In an exclusive interview to The Malabar Journal on December 19,2024 Dr. Lakshmi Venugopal Menon, a Qatar-based Researcher and international relations expert speaks about political and military situation in the Middle East following the collapse of the Assad Regime in Syria. Dr. Lakshmi Venugopal Menon feels that a “hasty removal of HTS from the terror list and pushing back of millions of refugees into Syria could lead to a further scarcity of resources and infighting”.

Dr. Dilna Sreedhar : The situation in the Middle East has changed dramatically in the wake of the collapse of the Syrian Regime headed by Basher Al Assad. The collapse has surprised many including the habitual Middle East Watchers. What is your assessment of the situation?

Dr. Lakshmi Venugopal Menon: The alleged statement by ousted Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad after he fled from Syria with Russia’s help suggests that it was Russia’s decision to evacuate Bashar and his family from Syria. However, Russia has maintained that their move was more to do with allowing the President to seek refuge in their country. It has been clear in the last 3-4 years that the Assad regime was becoming weak, meanwhile Russia too has been facing severe sanctions and other challenges particularly due to the Ukraine war. So, is the Russian decision to evacuate Assad a sign of the reducing power of Russia? Has Russia’s resurgence been affected?

I believe you will also see a hasty removal of the HTS from the terrorist list. This is for numerous reasons. First, European countries are wanting to push back Syrian refugees to Syria and a few states have frozen the processing of asylum-seeking applications of Syrian refugees. Second, there are reports of various Western, European, and other international powers including the staunch allies of Assad – Iran and Russia – of considering or having already begun conversation with the rebel leadership. Although yet to recognize the HTS as a part of the new government (due to its terrorist designation), most powers are willing to have a dialogue with them. This is contrary to what we saw in the Taliban government’s case (in Afghanistan). This difference in policy is due to the fact that Syria is a country where numerous international powers have strong interests and stakes, unlike in Afghanistan. Europe is hosting millions of Syrian refugees, US has soldiers, Russia has ports and warships, Turkey has its long-standing support for the Syrian opposition, and Iran has its proxies.

A hasty removal of HTS from the terror list and pushing back of millions of refugees into Syria, which currently does not have a functioning government or administration, could lead to a further scarcity of resources and in-fighting.

The influx of Syrian asylum seekers from Europe back to Syria and the resultant infighting also poses a national and international security threat: the collapse of security of the prisons with ISIS fighters which are currently being guarded by the HTS. If the prison doors open, it could lead to a proliferation of ISIS and its resurgence in the country and other parts of the world further leading to a new cycle of Islamophobia and ‘war on terror’ related policies.

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Dr. Dilna Sreedhar: Many observers feel that Israel is using the opportunity to further expand its area in Syria. It has already annexed the Golan Heights. At the same time, Tel Aviv is not showing any signs of easing the war in Gaza and attacks in the West Bank. Critical Israeli writers such as Gideon Levy feel that the Netanyahu dispensation is not ready even for a two-state solution.  Do you think so?

Dr. Lakshmi Venugopal Menon: On 16th December 2024, Israel’s govt approved a plan to expand their settlements in occupied Golan Heights, a week after their army invaded the UN buffer zone between the territory and southern Syria. Netanyahu says his govt acted in light of the new situation in Syria and wants to double Israeli settlement population in Golan heights, while continuing an undetermined policy towards Syria and maintaining that the new policy to double settlement is a national security decision. Israel’s actions also stem from a worry regarding Turkey taking over Syria and turning it into its new protectorate.

Irrespective of what is being said in international media and the calls for a return to the 1967 borders, the on-ground reality and the diplomatic dialogues do not paint the picture of Israel working towards a two-state solution.

Dr. Dilna Sreedhar: What is your view on the role of the GCC countries in bringing normalcy to the region, especially, after the Syrian developments?

Dr. Lakshmi Venugopal Menon: A pushing out of refugees or asylum seekers from European countries may increase the number of Syrians in the Gulf states although the Gulf states do not provide options for citizenship such as those offered by the Western or European states. However, there are still ways of gaining citizenship in many GCC countries through means of forming marriage alliances with nationals of the GCC states. This too however is not as easy as before, since many GCC states have also put a hold on awarding citizenship based on marriage contracts in order to preserve the demographic balance of their populations.

It has also been clear from the Abraham accords or the Israeli normalization policies and the refrainment of the countries that had normalized ties with Israel from stepping back from the normalization despite Israel coming down heavily upon the Palestinians in the war in Gaza, that the GCC region may not adopt policies jeopardizing their national security interests and position with Israel. Nevertheless, certain GCC states, such as Qatar, have been actively mediating for a peaceful end to the war in Gaza and the protection of the rights of the Palestinians. The policies from the GCC states collectively seem focused on addressing and resolving the humanitarian crisis faced by Palestinians.

Dr. Dilna Sreedhar: The US election is considered crucial in shaping the future of the Gaza War. Many people feel that Donald Trump making a clean sweep will give the signal to Israel to intensify the attack against Palestine and possibly Iran. Do you think so?

Dr.Lakshmi Venugopal Menon: Well certain far right leaders from Israel have made it clear that they expect to have Trump administration’s support to annex more territory. Israel’s finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, said in mid-December 2024, that he hopes President Trump will recognize Judea and Samaria (West Bank) as Israeli territory and declare the end of the Israeli-Palestinian war. Daniella Weiss, a settler leader who has been crucial in the settlement’s expansion in the West Bank, says Israel will not stop the war in Gaza without putting a total end to Hamas and its supporters, and resettling the entire Gaza strip with Jews. To be honest, many observers have maintained that Biden has been one of the strongest US president supporters of Israel. Hence, Trump’s policies may not be a major shift from that of Biden’s, however, it may be more direct, upfront, and devoid of frills, in true Donald Trump fashion. Trump recently also made a statement on how he thought Israel was a “tiny” dot on the regional map compared to the large swathes of territory under the neighboring Arab states. He also said that he had asked if there was any way to maybe make Israel bigger. Trump’s return to power can, hence, be perceived as a green-light to Israel to intensify the latter’s attack against Palestinians. With respect to Iran, I think it is too quick to speak considering how dynamically things are changing in Syria and the fact that Iran, a staunch ally of Assad, has reached out to the rebel leadership in Syria.

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Dr. Dilna Sreedhar: India is treading very carefully on the Middle East policy. So far it has maintained a kind of equal distance from the warring parties without antagonizing Israel and GCC members. Going forward, do you think India will be forced to take a more explicit position in support of either group?

Dr. Lakshmi Venugopal Menon: India has never been a country to be forced into taking an explicit position or joining a camp. There are very few powerful states which are at this crucial juncture in international politics able to simultaneously maintain relations with Russia, the U.S., Arab states, and Israel, like India is able to. The Modi government’s foreign policy mantra seems to be – unless the issue is in your backyard, do not get involved; one that seems to be working in their favor in the current scenario. There are Indians who are actively criticizing India’s lack of taking a concrete stand or a side. However, they are not considering the economic, political, and security consequences of the government taking such a stand and antagonizing various powers in the process, which will detrimentally affect the day to day lives of its citizens living inside and outside the country.

Dr. Dilna Sreedhar: The Gaza war erupted soon after the announcement of the IMEC project (India-Middle East-Europe Corridor). What is the fate of the project now? Is there any chance of the same getting off the drawing board or it would be extinguished in the raging fire in the Middle East?

Dr. Lakshmi Venugopal Menon: It is too soon to decide the fate of the IMEEC corridor as the corridor has significance beyond the immediate future or the present conditions determined by the war. The corridor remains important as it would significantly benefit many regions and players internationally by providing an alternative to the international trade route chokepoint – the Suez canal. Particularly after the ship blocked the canal in the previous year for close to a week, countries world over were jolted by the supply crisis and acute shortages, thus, realizing the need of an alternative as being proposed through the IMEEC project by India.

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Dr. Dilna Sreedhar: It is well known that the Netanyahu regime is facing major opposition in Israel. But, the latest reports show that the Gaza war helped Netanyahu to recover some of the lost ground. What is your view on the political situation within Israel?

Dr. Lakshmi Venugopal Menon: The October 7 attacks have pushed many of those who weren’t previously supporters of Netanyahu to his camp. Netanyahu has regained much domestic support and backing, despite the international human rights violations accusations. From January 2024 to October 2024, Netanyahu’s support rate has jumped from 15% to 41-47%. The rise in Netanyahu's popularity since the Gaza war began in Oct 2023, could very well be seen as a reflection of the implicit domestic public support for the continuation of the Israeli actions in Gaza and West Bank and the expansionist policies of the Netanyahu government.

Netanyahu has previously been accused of using the war in Gaza to delay, distract from, and evade the repercussions he stands to face domestically on charges of corruption, etc. If there is truth to this accusation, Netanyahu has been successful in using the situation in Gaza to regain his public support and recover some of the lost ground.